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Sunday, September 21, 2014

Only an $8 Lead

I was looking over the situation at the Symetra Tour Championship -- remember, there are 10 fully-exempt cards up for grabs -- and discovered that things have gotten very interesting indeed.

And much of the reason is Maude-Aimee LeBlanc, who is leading the event going into the final round.

Maude-Aimee Leblanc

Here's the deal: Of the Top10 cards, 6 are pretty well locked up. And given how the other players are playing, it looks like #7 Jackie Stoelting is pretty solid as well since I don't think she can fall past #10 as long as she succeeds in posting a score. (My calculations say any finish below 3rd place won't award enough money to pass her unless #8 Dye manages to take 4th-7th but no higher. Stoelting could conceivably fall to #11 then.)

#8 Kendall Dye could be in trouble. My calculations say she could also fall 4 spots if she stumbles and the Top4 finishers fall in just the right way. The problem is that she only has 2 spots to play with, while Stoelting has 3.

But #9 and #10 could be passed by anybody down to at least #21 on the money list, depending on whether the challengers win or get solo 2nd-5th and depending on who gets which position. Here is the table posted at symetratour.com after the 3rd round. (Note that #18-21 didn't make the cut and that #12 Lee Lopez is pretty much out of the running, which helps the Top10 a bit.)

Player Current Money 2nd Rd. Finish Projected Money* Projected Ranking
#7 Jackie Stoelting $48,580 T27 (-2) $1,484 7 ($50,064)
#8 Kendall Dye $46,032 T14 (-4) $2,484 8 ($48,516)
#9 Mallory Blackwelder $39,487 T21 (-3) $1,827 10 ($41,314)
#10 Veronica Felibert $39,479 T27 (-2) $1,484 12 ($40,963)
#11 Sara-Maude Juneau $36,538 T7 (-5) $4,448 11 ($40,986)
#12 Lee Lopez $36,115 T64 (+4) $481 14 ($36,596)
#13 Lindy Duncan $36,063 T7 (-5) $4,448 13 ($40,511)
#14 Brittany Altomare $33,864 T27 (-2) $1,484 16 ($35,348)
#15 Demi Runas $33,223 T21 (-3) $1,827 18 ($35,050)
#16 Emily Talley $32,747 T14 (-4) $2,484 17 ($35,231)
#17 Nicole Vandermade $31,896 T7 (-5) $4,448 15 ($36,344)
#21 Maude-Aimee LeBlanc $25,229 1 (-11) $22,500 9 ($47,729)
#34 Casey Grice $19,521 3 (-8) $10,255 19 ($29,776)
*projected money does not account for ties (i.e. T1 standing is projected out as solo first place money)

The thing to note here is the Current Money column, which shows where players stand coming into this event. Note that #9 Mallory Blackwelder and #10 Veronica Felibert are separated by a mere $8, while #11 Sara-Maude Juneau and (of course) #21 Maude-Aimee LeBlanc are both playing better than them.

As things stand right now -- again, assuming that Blackwelder, Felibert, and Juneau can solo in their current positions, and that LeBlanc wins -- LeBlanc leaps past both Blackwelder AND Felibert, pushing Felibert out of a card. In fact, Juneau leaps Felibert as well!

And that's all because Blackwelder is just one single stroke ahead of Felibert.

But here's the trick: Except for LeBlanc (and Grice, who can't get a card even if she wins), everybody else in this table is in a tie. That means that the money totals are all hypothetical and could change drastically. One stroke more or less -- especially for Blackwelder and Felibert -- could mean the difference between a card and Q-School.

Even if players don't get a card, a good finish here could jump them straight to the final round of the LPGA Q-School. But getting a fully-exempt card today would make the next few months much more restful.

I doubt there will be much resting today.

2 comments:

  1. FINAL #VolvikRace Top-10: 10. Mallory Blackwelder 9. Demi Frances Runas 8. Kendall Dye 4. Sadena Parks 3. Jackie Stoelting 1. @Steen_golf

    ReplyDelete
  2. http://t.co/ki1WxFP6rp http://t.co/WelZAEBkq8 https://t.co/nViT3zr1zY

    ReplyDelete