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Thursday, August 13, 2009

Who's Your Pick to Win the PGA?

The PGA starts today... who do you think will win?

It's probably safe to say that Tiger's the odds-on favorite and Phil's the sentimental favorite. There's a lot of talk about Sergio (everyone remembers his big duel with Tiger back in '99), Kenny Perry (many people think this long course sets up well for him), and Steve Stricker (who's just playing very well coming into this major).

I'm going out on a limb and picking Padraig Harrington to successfully defend. I know one good showing (his 2nd last week) isn't enough to make him a favorite, but I don't think you can write him off easily. All the talk is about the swing change he's been working on; I've heard he's trying to change his wrist position at impact, which is a very difficult change to make. But he says that last week was a mental change, not a swing change; if it can make a difference that big that quickly, I'm not ready to write him off.

I just hope the officials aren't watching the clock this week...

As for the length of the course, I don't think that eliminates anybody as long as the Tour uses the length to vary the course. If they play some holes long and some holes short, but mix it up so that no hole plays exactly the same each day, we could see one of the short but accurate players (like Brian Gay) hold that trophy Sunday evening.

What can you learn from this? Don't let numbers beat you before you even start. Short courses (think Harbour Town) can be far more treacherous than a long course. Many of the players this week have already been beaten before the tournament begins.

As for the PGA... it looks like it might be a good championship.

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