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Sunday, April 4, 2010

Told Ya So...

Yes, I admit it... I'm feeling pretty damn smug today. I said I'd put my money on Karen Stupples, 1 back of the lead after Round 2; and here we are, after Round 3, she's up by 1... and it would have been 2, but for a few fractions of an inch. Not only that, after the round she said she'd been fighting her putter, but the other women were probably glad of that because she was hitting her irons so well. Did she read my post?

After the swelling went down and my head fit in the room again, I figured I should look over the new stats and see if anything's changed. Here are the stats for the Top 6 (I don't foresee all of these players falling back enough for the players at -4 to have a chance):
  • Karen Stupples (-10): 24 fairways, 46 GIR, 90 putts
  • Yani Tseng (-9): 26 fairways, 38 GIR, 86 putts
  • Suzann Pettersen (-9): 31 fairways, 42 GIR, 87 putts
  • Lorena Ochoa (-7): 22 fairways, 38 GIR, 87 putts
  • Song-Hee Kim (-7): 25 fairways, 36 GIR, 85 putts
  • Karrie Webb (-5): 32 fairways, 36 GIR, 84 putts
Hardly anything has changed. Note that:
  • Stacy Lewis did indeed fall by the wayside (her GIR was only 50% in Round 3!);
  • Stupples is now over 85% in GIR, and still leading the pack;
  • Stupples is still the worst putter of the bunch;
  • Webb is still the best putter of the lot;
  • 6 strokes is still the separation between the two putters.
To be honest, unless Karen Stupples falls apart in Round 4, I think this is a 3-horse race between her, Tseng, and Pettersen... and if you pushed me, I'd say it's just Stupples and Pettersen. Tseng is missing way too many fairways, so I have to believe her score Saturday was a bit lucky. Likewise, Pettersen's second round was an aberration; I don't see her shooting over par on Sunday. This could go to sudden death...

But I'm still going with Karen Stupples to get her second major. After childbirth and medical problems, I think Mama's back.


  1. Mike,

    How is Tseng missing far too many fairways when Stupples has missed even more?

  2. Tseng has a three stroke lead after six holes...

  3. Bill -- I meant relative to their GIR. Stupples was hitting fewer fairways, but was hitting way more greens. It looked to me like she was getting in less trouble off the tee, given how many more greens she was hitting. (I figured Stupples's misses were playable, while Tseng's weren't; therefore Tseng was hitting it worse.)

    Yeah, that changed today... ;-) Both hit the same amount of fairways, but Stupples hit 7 fewer greens -- enough to skew all my predictions. But that's the price of making predictions and being wrong...

    Vince -- I'm doing two posts for tomorrow. You'll enjoy the Kraft wrapup. ;-)