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Sunday, April 10, 2016

(Possibly) On This Day in History

There are so many storylines going into today's Masters that it can be hard to keep them all straight. Here's a quick list of what history could be made today. I'm only going down to the group at +2 (5 off the lead) because if the wind lays down today as they think it will, it will still likely take a 65 or 64 to come from that far back.

LEAD AT -3:
  • Jordan Spieth could become the youngest player to win two Masters, as well as the only player to win 2 of his first 3 Masters. And depending on what Jason Day does, he could regain the #1 ranking as well.
-2:
  • Smylie Kaufman could become the first Masters rookie to win since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979.
-1:
  • Bernhard Langer could become the oldest major winner by slightly over a decade.
  • Hideki Matsuyama could become the first Japanese major winner.
EVEN:
  • Jason Day could win his second major in a row.
  • Dustin Johnson could get his first-ever major win.
  • Danny Willett could get his first-ever major win and become the first European Masters champ since 1999.
+1:
  • Lee Westwood could get his first-ever major win and become the first European Masters champ since 1999.
  • Brandt Snedeker could get his first-ever major win.
  • Soren Kjeldsen could become the first Danish major winner, as well as the first European Masters champ since 1999.
+2:
  • Daniel Berger could become the first Masters rookie to win since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979.
  • Rory McIlroy could become only the 6th player to complete the career Grand Slam.
Historically, the Masters winner generally comes from one of the last two groups and most often from the last group. So Spieth and Kaufman are the most likely winners, with Langer and Matsuyama very real possibilities. But stranger things have happened -- Jackie Burke Jr. came from 8 back to win the 1956 Masters over Ken Venturi.

However, Burke only needed a 71 to beat Venturi's final round 80 by a single stroke.

Likewise, Nick Faldo came from 6 back to beat Greg Norman in the infamous 1996 Masters. Norman did struggle with a 78 but Faldo shot an impressive 67 to win by 5.

In neither case was the winning score better than the third round leading score. And I don't think the leaders are coming back to the pack today.

But I'd keep my eye on that group at even. For one of them, a 67 just might be enough to squeak out a green jacket.

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