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Friday, April 12, 2019

The Odds Have Changed

I don't do a lot of articles like this lately, but the great play on Thursday has changed the odds so dramatically that I thought you might be interested to see how they're evolving just since the first round finished.

New betting favorite Brooks Koepka

Here are the odds from Westgate LasVegas Superbook, as listed by Will Gray on
  • 9/2: Brooks Koepka
  • 6/1: Dustin Johnson
  • 13/2: Bryson DeChambeau
  • 10/1: Tiger Woods
  • 12/1: Phil Mickelson, Jon Rahm
  • 14/1: Rickie Fowler
  • 20/1: Adam Scott, Francesco Molinari
  • 25/1: Ian Poulter, Rory McIlroy
  • 30/1: Kevin Kisner, Tommy Fleetwood
  • 40/1: Jason Day
  • 50/1: Gary Woodland, Cameron Smith, Tony Finau, Louis Oosthuizen
  • 60/1: Bubba Watson, Matt Kuchar
  • 80/1: J.B. Holmes, Kiradech Aphibarnrat
  • 100/1: Justin Harding, Charley Hoffman, Justin Rose, Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele, Lucas Bjerregaard, Corey Conners
  • 150/1: Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Patton Kizzire
Note that Brooks has leapt all the way from 20/1 to 9/2 while Rory fell from 9/1 to 25/1. Tiger and Phil improved incrementally while Bryson also made a big leap toward the top.

Why do I find this so interesting? Here are the odds Gray listed back in August 2018. Take a look:
  • 10/1: Jordan Spieth
  • 12/1: Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas
  • 14/1: Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy
  • 16/1: Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm
  • 20/1: Jason Day
  • 25/1: Bubba Watson
  • 30/1: Patrick Reed, Tommy Fleetwood, Francesco Molinari, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama
  • 40/1: Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Tony Finau, Adam Scott
  • 50/1: Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, Marc Leishman
  • 60/1: Alex Noren, Xander Schauffele, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen
  • 80/1: Thomas Pieters, Branden Grace, Ian Poulter, Brandt Snedeker, Zach Johnson, Webb Simpson, Charley Hoffman, Cameron Smith
  • 100/1: Kevin Kisner, Tyrrell Hatton, Daniel Berger, Kevin Chappell, Ryan Moore, Aaron Wise, Russell Henley, Charl Schwartzel
Obviously they didn't know every player who would qualify back at that time. But look at how much some of these players have changed! The most glaring change is Jordan Spieth, moving from the 10/1 favorite to a 150/1 longshot. And -- surprising to me -- Jason Day's odds actually improved despite the obvious back discomfort he experienced Thursday.

Granted, it's only been one round and a lot can change before Sunday night. But it demonstrates how seriously the betting community takes the stat that says most Masters champions are in the Top10 after the first round.

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