My "5 to Watch" at THE TOUR Championship

It feels a little weird picking five players this week since there are only 29 in the field. (Jim Furyk withdrew with wrist pain, you'll recall.) That means I'm picking 17% of the field, which is considerably more than normal!



Still, with a field this small and all the crazy permutations that are possible when the point totals get added up, almost anything could happen this week. So I'm going to pick five players but limit myself to ONLY ONE player from the Top5, and make my other picks from the rest of the field. That way I hope to get some of the randomness I would get from a normal-sized field.

Bear in mind that I'm only trying to pick the winner of THE TOUR Championship. I won't even try to sort out the points for the FedExCup itself. I'll leave that to Steve Sands.

• For my Top5 player, I can't get away from Rickie Fowler. Rickie is coming off a win and a T4 in his last two Playoff events, and don't you think he's got something to prove with all that "Big Three" talk? THE TOUR Championship (and FedExCup since he's in the Top5) would be the perfect bow for a great season, even without a major.
• Zach Johnson finished 21st last year but T7 the year before. After becoming the Champion Golfer of the Year at St. Andrews, I think he's more likely to play well than not.
• Rory McIlroy has something to prove and, really, all he needs is for his putter to heat up a little. He's pretty well gotten the rust off his game.
• Hideki Matsuyama has been trending very well since missing the cut in Greensboro. Last week's T7 at Conway Farms bodes well for a course like East Lake that demands accuracy.
• And finally, my flier pick -- once again -- is Kevin Kisner. I can't help but feel that he's right on the verge of a win, despite his T41 last week.

I may regret not taking Jason Day as my Top5 pick this week. He's the hot player right now, so many feel he has to be the favorite. Still, I feel compelled to mention that Jason has yet to win two tournaments in consecutive weeks, and since he won last week he'll have to break that trend in order to win this one. I think that may be asking too much after the incredible run he's had.

And in case you wonder about the mathematical probabilities of each player in the field winning the $10mil prize, you can look up your favorite player in this article from PGATOUR.com and learn the sometimes long odds of success.