My "5 to Watch" at the Senior PGA

The Champions Tour is playing two majors in a row, so this week they tee it up at the KitchenAid Senior PGA. And the picks aren't as simple as they may first appear.



One reason is that the defending champion, Bernhard Langer, isn't teeing it up this week. Another reason is the strange rotation pattern of the courses -- this week's course, the Golf Club at Harbor Shores in Michigan, has been the track for the last four events in even years (2012, 2014, 2016 and this year) while last year the event was in Virginia, Indiana in 2015 and Missouri in 2013.

What we can learn from this is that Harbor Shores seems to favor low scores -- 13-under in 2012 and 2014, 10-under in 2016. I guess you'd call Rocco Mediate the defending champ at this course, with Colin Montgomerie having won the time before. But after so much time, does that really help us?

Weather could have an noticeable effect on this week's play, as it's expected to change dramatically. It's in the high 50s today, going up about 10 degrees each day to the low 80s Friday and Saturday, then starting to drop again. Who will adapt best?

About all I can do is look at recent form and compare it to past performance at this course. So here's my best guess at who might contend. (At least I've done pretty good picking contenders lately. Just no winners!)

• Having won last week, Miguel Angel Jimenez has to be considered a favorite. With no break between events, he should carry last week's form over to this week. Assuming the weather change from Alabama doesn't throw him off too much, that is.
• Although Stricker isn't there this week, his buddy Jerry Kelly is. And Kelly's dedication to the Champions Tour has paid off, as he picked up a win earlier this year and is in contention almost every week. Last week he finished T8... and for a Wisconsin boy, this event is almost like playing at home.
• Joe Durant has been playing well all year, posting lots of Top10s, including a T2 at last week's major. Again, current form counts for a lot in my rankings this week, and Durant is knocking at the door.
• Scott McCarron won four times last season but has yet to enter the winner's circle this year. His scoring has been erratic but he's had three Top10s in his last six events, with a T5 at the Tradition last week. Maybe the majors have his attention now.
• And my flier is... Jeff Maggert. He isn't someone who immediately comes to mind but he's been playing much better as of late, posting T10, T2 and T5 (last week) in his last three starts. Maggert hasn't won since 2015, but this could be his week.

So my choice this week is Jerry Kelly. To be honest, I'm picking him because he's in decent form and this is almost a home game for him. He nearly got it done last week; perhaps this will be the week he gets his first major.